斯伦贝谢CEO：石油业逆境求生的四重逻辑

This morning I will cover four topics that we believe are critical for the industry to restore its strength and advance its capabilities after one of the most devastating downturns on record.

First, is the need for higher E&P spending to meet growing hydrocarbon demand over the coming years.

Second, the need to protect and encourage continued investments in research and engineering (R&E) throughout the entire oil and gas value chain.

Third, the need for new business models that foster closer technical collaboration and commercial alignment between operators and the supplier industry.

And fourth, is the need for broader and more integrated technology platforms capable of delivering revolutionary improvements to system performance by replacing the fragmented and evolutionary technologies of today.

Over the past couple of years, I have spoken regularly about the importance of these subjects so in some ways today’s agenda items are not new. However, given the importance we put on these topics we are doing more than just talking about them. We continue to monitor the underlying industry trends relating to these topics and today I will share with you our latest analysis and what the implications are for Schlumberger.

We are also actively positioning Schlumberger in the forefront of these trends by responding to the ongoing pressures of commoditization and by actively expanding our opportunity set in a period where the industry in many ways lacks overall direction. In this respect I will also provide an update on what we are doing to navigate the challenging industry landscape by leveraging the size of our global footprint, the unique capabilities of our workforce, and most importantly the willingness and appetite we collectively have to think new and to act new.

But, before we begin let’s get the formalities out of the way.

Some of the statements I will make today are forward-looking. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause our results to differ materially from those projected in these statements.

I therefore refer you to our latest 10-K and other SEC filings.

So let’s first discuss the need for higher E&P spending to meet the growing hydrocarbon demand.

Over the past year, we have maintained our constructive view of the oil market, which is supported by the fall in OECD oil stocks that began in July of 2016. At present OECD stocks are around 3 billion barrels as demand remains strong and supply has levelled off through a combination of lower oilfield activity and production cuts from both OPEC and key non-OPEC countries. The reporting agencies continue to increase their global demand growth estimates, which now stand between 1.0 and 1.5 million barrels per day for 2017 and the following years.

So far this year, Brent prices have oscillated between 50 and 55 dollars per barrel as the record OPEC production from the fourth quarter of last year works its way through the global distribution system, and as the market awaits the inventory impact from the recent production cuts.

At present the only region in the world showing clear signs of increased activity and investment compared to 2016 is North America land where E&P operators appear unconstrained by a sixth year of negative free cash flow.

Assuming the strong growth in North America land activity continues, US crude production is set to increase in 2017 and in the years to come, however, it is unlikely that North American unconventional production alone can address the emerging global supply deficit for the following three reasons:

First, the full-cycle financial viability outside the Tier 1 acreage continues to be challenging and the industry balance sheets and cash flows are attracting more focus from both lenders and private equity players.

Second, while the E&P operators rightfully state that break-even costs have come down significantly over the past couple of years, there is an impending cost inflation avalanche coming from the service industry, which continues to operate at unsustainable pricing levels. This inflation will ultimately end up in the financial results of the E&P operators.

Third, if the only source of global production growth in the coming years ends up being the ultra-light crude from North American unconventional basins like the Permian, this will likely create an oversupply of light oil and a shortage of the heavier crudes required for refinery blending.

This could result in a widening spread between Brent and WTI prices and potentially another financial headwind for the North America land operators.

Globally, we are at this stage expecting a third year of significant under-investment outside the Middle East, Russia, and North America land.

The 2017 E&P spend for this part of the global production base, which still makes up around 50 million barrels-per-day of production is expected to be down 50% compared to 2014. At no other time in the past 50 years has our industry experienced cuts of this magnitude and this duration.

While the market continues to focus on the headline numbers which suggest that production is holding-up well even in the third successive year of underinvestment, a closer look at the underlying data reveals that the current situation is not sustainable.

A complete picture of the sustainability of supply can only be established by analyzing the interplay between production rates reserves replacement and decline-and-depletion rates.

In summary, this morning I have covered four topics that we see as critical for the industry to restore its strength and advance its capabilities.

They are—the need for higher E&P spending, the need to protect investments in R&E, the need for new business models, and the need for broader and more integrated technology systems.

Against this backdrop, I have outlined how we are positioning Schlumberger to remain in the forefront of the evolving industry trends.

So far, 2017 has started with a number of challenges, in particular in the international markets, where a more severe seasonal reduction in activity, further pricing pressure on new tenders, and continued payment issues in Ecuador are negatively impacting our Q1 results.

However, we remain confident and optimistic about the future of Schlumberger as we continue to carefully navigate the current industry landscape, which remains very challenging but also presents significant opportunities to the players that are ready to think and act new.