安永报告：由体量到价值 国家石油公司的转型路

From volume to value: the transformation of National Oil Companies

The unfortunate convergence of increasing oil supply and weakening global demand has created an oversupplied market and caused a sharp and sustained decline in international crude oil prices. From its last peak in June 2014, crude oil prices have declined by over 55% during the last thirty months. The recent agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to cut output has provided much needed reprieve to the oil market by setting a floor price. However, we do not see that this
development will change our outlook of longer-term low prices.

For many emerging economies heavily dependent on oil revenue, the dramatic fall in prices has unleashed a chain reaction with far-reaching consequences on government budgets, sovereign investment, economic development How is changing the nature of this “contract with the State” impacting the NOC, and what ensuing repercussions may this have on the oil and gas industry?

Secondly, what changes in the contract would the NOC need from the State to set in place an equation that enables a sustainable return to equilibrium for national finances, in what is generally agreed to be the twilight era for the oil economy?

Weak oil prices have led to a decline in current account balances and, for the majority of emerging economies dependent on oil revenues, have caused a significant slowdown in their ability to fund economic activity. Despite putting in place some austerity measures, and an overall decline in spending from previous years’ level(s), the fiscal break-even prices for the majority of Middle Eastern and North African countries is still higher than the prevailing oil price, causing deficits for many national budgets. While some countries have used the cushion available from the government reserve surplus accumulated during the boom years, this option becomes ever more challenging when the oil price outlook remains weak for the next few years.

The OPEC member countries’ annual oil export revenues are estimated to decline for the third consecutive year to US$341 billion (not adjusted for inflation) in 2016. This is 34% lower than the 2015 revenues, and nearly one fourth of the 2012 levels, and notably the lowest in the past 10 years. This constituency has recorded a joint current account deficit of nearly US$100 billion in 2015 (the first time in nearly two decades), down from a US$238 billion surplus in 2014.

As a result, a more expansive strategy is required, bringing into play the national budget itself, major changes to costly subsidy programs, and potentially also the core function of the NOC. A good example of the extent of change impacting NOCs and hydrocarbondependent economies is highlighted in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. The country’s fiscal reserves are estimated to provide cover for over six years and the ongoing shortfall in revenue has resulted in Saudi Arabia actively, and successfully, tapping into the international bond market to raise debt to cover part of the deficit.

There is an urgent need for NOCs around the world — particularly in heavily dependent hydrocarbon economies — to formulate a long-term plan to fulfill their obligations to the State, over and beyond short-term tactical responses.

The manner in which these NOCs are operating, their structures, and their contributions to the State, are simultaneously changing; a transformation so profound that it stands next to the nationalizations of decades past as the most defining moments of their respective histories.

NOCs are major players in the global oil and gas industry, accounting for 58% of global reserves and 56% of production. They often play a leading role in emerging market economies, and are normally called to be the custodians of a nation’s resource development and energy security. By definition, the hydrocarbon-driven economy prospers by the efficiency with which the country’s oil and gas assets are monetized, and the proceeds of which contribute significant proportions of the State’s revenue. However, the NOCs role rarely stops there, and depending on their home country, they may also be policy makers, regulators, trading commercial entities or a combination of such functions. They fulfill their government mandates, through a diversified group of structures along the entire hydrocarbon value chain, in various manners, including partnerships with foreign oil and gas companies, local partners or in government-to-government (G2G) cooperation agreements.

Moreover, in many hydrocarbondriven emerging markets, NOCs also act as engines of economic and social development and have explicit or implicit duties such as national infrastructure development and social welfare programs. KazMunayGas (KMG), the NOC of Kazakhstan for instance, has been tasked with integrating the country into the world economy and making sure that the company’s growth and development translates into more general economic growth for the country.

At the lower dependency end of the oil revenue continuum, NOCs will be looking to optimize around sustainable economic value. But for NOCs whose governments have very high reliance on oil revenue, the situation is very different. These governments face a more existential level of threat, firstly from the continuation of an oil price that yields less than half of its 2014 revenue, and secondly from the tangible growth of energy alternatives Country NOC % of revenue from oil and gas to the fiscal budget Key drivers and changes in NOCs contract with the state Saudi Arabia Aramco 80%
• Maximization of value in company listing
• Local content program to drive suppliers to have localized manufacturing in kingdom
• Double natural gas production
• Increase of downstream value capture Kuwait KPC 94% • Increase output to 4 mb/d by 2020
• Delivery of natural gas for industrial growth and energy mix
• Increase of downstream value capture
• Employment and development of Nationals UAE ADNOC 63.5% • Increase output by 3.5 mb/d
• Maintain competitive edge by being commercially driven
• Improve productivity across group businesses
• Increase of downstream value capture Nigeria NNPC N/A • Increase output
• Reduce import of refined products
• Increase efficiency and reducing bureaucracy by splitting NNPC to into seven independent units
• Successful implementation of Nigeria Content Act Angola Sonangol 70% • Restructuring of Sonangol to drive efficiency
• Two new entities — the Agency and the Superior Council —will be responsible for regulation and administration.

In this context, it is likely to be necessary to adopt a more expansive policy and to redefine the role and function of the NOC. Further along the continuum between low and high levels of dependency, it may be necessary to start thinking of NOCs less as a ‘National Oil Company’, and more in terms of them being a ‘National Company’. In such a role, a National Company’s investment strategy needs to be pushing greater economic diversity alongside maintaining or increasing production. For example, some NOCs are actively investing in solar power to generate steam for injection into the oilfields instead of burning valuable natural gas which can be channelled for manufacture of higher value added products. It may also make longer term sense to satisfy more domestic energy demand through gas imports (or even solar) and to export more crude. The additional revenue can then be reinvested in related, but non-oil, commercial ventures that are then spunoff once established in order to grow gross domestic product (GDP). The aim for a ‘National Company’ would be to maximize the multiplier effect of its domestic investments and contracting strategy. In this way, it help to fulfil the contract with the state in a different way, by actively growing the wider economy (and resulting tax revenues). At this end of the continuum, debt or equity financing is unlikely to represent a path to a sustainable new budget equilibrium in what may prove to be the twilight era the oil economy. A framework that takes into account both NOC obligations and critical elements for discussion/re-negotiation as the“new contract with the State” is set out in Figure 4.

The immediate focus is on the expectations faced by the NOC, to sustain and grow in this new era of oil price environment. We identify this (critical) expectation on the NOC as the new “fiscal responsibility” regime, which places a clear emphasis on profitability and quality of earnings.

To conclude, the case for NOC transformation is clear. The coming years will be defining for the NOCs as they progress to become “commercial NOCs”, fully embracing the need to embark on the capital transformation. Industry transformations are never simple. For an NOC to be able to maximize the quality of its earnings and contribution to the State, many aspects critical for the successful NOC of the future will need to be understood and addressed, which are included in Figure 8.

NOCs must change the way they relate to their government in order to maintain their critical roles within the global oil and gas market and within their governments. By implementing changes that maximize their margins and increase capital efficiency, NOCs will position themselves for survival and growth through this new era of abundance.
The NOC has a well-structured contract with the state and the oil and gas regulator, which enables the entity to allocate capital that will enhance its long-term value and produce quality of earnings.
Balancing national versus commercial objectives The evolution of the NOC serves as a key contributor of the country’s GDP while fulfilling both national objectives and the profitability expectations of key stakeholders of the entity.

Internationalization The NOC creates a significant international presence with investments in major high-growth-potential markets. Funding It has a combination of external commercial finance, equity investors and free cash flow from operations.

Enabling technology The NOC uses cutting-edge technology and digital solutions to improve efficiency and productivity that helps it retain status as one of the low-cost producers.

The NOC is fully integrated to capture and maximize income in the entire oil and gas value chain.
People, capabilities and skills development The transformed NOC has well-developed centers of excellence in key locations, and its staff are able to conduct market-leading training programs.