EIA：油气市场发展潜力分析及展望

EIA expects WTI oil prices to remain low compared to recent history, but the market-implied confidence band is very wide.

Sources: EIA derived from state administrative data collected by DrillingInfo Inc. Data are through February 2016 and represent EIA’s official tight oil & shale gas estimates, but are not survey data. State abbreviations indicate primary.

Long lead times and past investment are contributing to growth from the Gulf of Mexico as Lower 48 production declines.

Crude supply trends outside the United States (red areas) are key to future oil market balance: geopolitical developments, exporter decisions, and the timing and magnitude of supply effects stemming from reduced investment all matter.

EIA forecasts global liquids consumption growth at 1.4 million b/d in 2016 and 1.5 million b/d in 2017.

Non-OECD economic growth projections, a key driver of oil demand, have been reduced over the course of recent STEO forecasts.

Reductions in energy intensity largely offset effects of economic and population growth, leading to slow projected growth in energy use.

Combination of increased tight oil production and higher fuel efficiency drives projected decline in oil imports

North American natural gas production is more likely to be limited by demand than supply. U.S. natural gas demand growth is likely to be concentrated in electricity and industrial uses; natural gas exports and use in the transportation sector, where little natural gas is used today, are also likely to grow.

Potential challenges to natural gas demand growth include Slow growth in U.S. electricity demand，competition from offshore “stranded” gas for global LNG exports and siting of gas-intensive industries，

Long-term cheap oil, extent and nature of global price convergence in natural gas markets would be other significant challenges to LNG exports.
Future policies that target particular sources or uses of energy or energy-related emissions can really matter for future natural gas demand.

Natural gas prices are projected to remain below $5 per million British thermal units through most of the projection period with or without the Clean Power Plan.

U.S. natural gas production exceeds consumption, making the United States a net exporter of natural gas in the very near future.

Shale resources remain the dominant source of U.S. natural gas production growth.

Natural gas generation falls through 2021; both gas and renewable generation surpass coal by 2030 in the Reference case, but only natural gas does so without the Clean Power Plan.

Natural gas consumption growth is led by electricity generation and industrial uses; natural gas use rises in all sectors except residential.

World energy consumption increases 48% increase (1.4% compound annual growth rate) between 2012 and 2040. Non-OECD Asia (including China and India) account for more than half of the increase. The industrial sector continues to account for the largest share of delivered energy consumption; the world industrial sector still consumes over half of global delivered energy in 2040. Renewable energy is the world’s fastest-growing energy source, increasing by 2.6%/year; nuclear energy grows by 2.3%/year, from 4% of the global total in 2012 to 6% in 2040. Fossil fuels continue to supply more than three-fourths of world energy use in 2040.

Economic growth in key economies (China, Brazil, Russia, among others), Implementation and strength of climate policies, Technology improvement rates (both supply and demand), Unrest in oil producing countries, OPEC production, Future of nuclear generating capacity.

Economic activity and population drive increases in energy use; energy intensity (E/GDP) improvements moderate this trend.

Renewables grow fastest, coal use plateaus, natural gas surpasses coal by 2030, and oil maintains its leading share.

Projected carbon intensity of energy use (CO2/E) declines through 2040 in both OECD and non-OECD; non-OECD CO2/E rose over 2000–12.

GDP drives electricity demand growth, but the electricity growth rate compared to the GDP growth rate becomes smaller over time.

Renewables, natural gas, and coal all contribute roughly the same amount of global net electricity generation in 2040.

Most of the growth in world oil consumption occurs in the non-OECD regions — especially Asia.

Liquid fuels supplies from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers increase through 2040.

Non-OECD nations account for ¾ of projected growth in natural gas consumption.

Non-OECD Asia, Middle East, and OECD Americas account for the largest increases in natural gas production.

Shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane become increasingly important to gas supplies, not only for the U.S., but also China and Canada.