石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 中国石化新闻网讯 据Neftegaz.RU网站12月6日莫斯科报道，俄罗斯塔斯社今天援引世界银行在其最新版《俄罗斯经济报告》中的表述报道说，俄罗斯具备抵御外部冲击的良好条件。 世界银行在报告还指出，油价在今后的3年里预计将平均为每桶71美元，但世界银行警告称，这一预测仍有相当大的不确定性。世界银行的报告预计，石油需求仍将保持强劲。报告援引国际能源署的预测称，全球明年原油日需求量将增加140万桶。 报告说，尽管石油行业经历了极端波动，但这一趋势预计将持续下去。世界银行指出，俄罗斯的高水平国际储备（4610亿美元），小的国际债务（占GDP的29%）以及舒适的进口封面(15.9个月)使得俄罗斯处于能够承受外部冲击的位置。 俄罗斯正密切关注12月6日在维也纳召开的欧佩克会议，届时欧佩克将讨论再次减产的可能性。俄罗斯的参与或不愿参与——无论情况如何——可能是欧佩克成败的关键时刻，而这个卡特尔组织曾经独自左右石油市场。 俄罗斯对石油市场状况的立场以及参与减产的意愿，向市场发出了好坏参半的信号。弗拉基米尔•普京总统上周曾表示，俄罗斯显然会与欧佩克合作，但他未能明确表示，如果欧佩克同意减产，俄罗斯是否会与欧佩克一道减产。 李峻 编译自 Neftegaz.RU 原文如下： World Bank: Russia can withstand oil price volatility in 2019 Neftegaz.RU. Russia is well-positioned to withstand external shocks, The World Bank said in its most recent version of Russia Economic Report, cited by TASS. Oil prices are expected to average $71 per barrel over the next 3 years, the report also said, with the caveat that there is still considerable uncertainty to this forecast. Oil demand is still expected to be robust according to the World Bank’s report, which citied the International Energy Agency forecast of a 1.4 million barrels per day increase. Despite the extreme volatility experienced in the oil industry, with expectations that this trend will continue, the World Bank noted that Russia’s high level of international reserves ($461 billion), small international debt (29% of GDP), and comfortable import cover (15.9 months) positions Russia well to absorb external shocks, the report reads. Russia is eyed closely leading up to the December 6 meeting in Vienna this weekend where OPEC will discuss the possibility of cutting oil production once again. Russia’s participation or reluctance to participate – whichever the case may be – may be a make or break moment for the cartel that once could sway the oil market alone. Russia has sent mixed signals into the marketplace regarding its stance on the state of the oil market and its willingness to participate in production cuts. Vladimir Putin last week said that it was obvious that Russia would cooperate with OPEC, but failed to say definitively that it would cut production along with OPEC, should OPEC agree to do so.
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