石油圈中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社新加坡9月26日消息，大宗商品贸易公司托克公司的一位高管周二表示，受油价下跌导致勘探支出下降的影响，到2019年底全球石油需求可能会超过全球原油供应200-400万桶/日。
托克公司市场风险部门的联合负责人Ben Luckock在新加坡召开的一次行业会议上表示，供需失衡是由于发现新油气储量的支出下降，而且现有油井，尤其是来自于页岩构造区的新油井自然地耗尽。
全球基准的布伦特原油价格从2014年6月份的每桶115.71美元的高点跌至2016年1月份的每桶27.10美元的低点。自那以后，油价已反弹至每桶59美元。油价下跌导致的收入显著下降造成石油公司纷纷削减其勘探预算。
Luckock指出2016年全球油气勘探支出从两年前的7000亿美元降至约3000亿美元，因此供应最终将低于需求。
国际能源署（IEA)在最新的石油市场报告中表示，今年二季度全球石油供应量为9,700万桶/日，而需求为9,790万桶/日。
庞晓华 摘译自 路透社
原文如下：
Oil demand may exceed supply by up to 4 MMbpd by 2019
9/26/2017
SINGAPORE (Reuters) — Global oil demand may be between 2 MMbpd to 4 MMbpd more than worldwide crude supply by the end of 2019 as exploration spending has declined as prices fell, an executive with commodities trading house Trafigura said on Tuesday.
The mismatch in supply and demand is the result of a decline in spending to find new oil and gas reserves and as existing wells, especially new wells from shale formations, are naturally used up, said Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of group market risk, at an industry conference in Singapore.
Benchmark Brent crude oil prices collapsed to as low as $27.10/bbl in January 2016 from as much as $115.71 in June 2014. Prices have rebounded since then to over $59. The steep decline in revenue as prices dropped caused companies to cut their exploration budgets.
Luckock pointed to a drop in exploration spending in 2016 to about $300 B from $700 B 2 yr earlier as a reason supply will eventually fall below demand.
Global oil supply was 97 MMbpd during the second quarter of this year while demand was 97.9 MMbpd, the International Energy Agency said in its latest oil market report.
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